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“清零”告终后,中国疫情跨入新未知领域

随着“新十条”的公布,中国三年来严格的新冠“清零”政策似乎画上句点。但随着放开,病例数的增长将不可避免,中国目前的医疗资源能否应对这些挑战是一些西方观察人士讨论的话题。而另一些人则关注,中国当局在未来的宣传中将如何描述过去三年里因极端防控措施而失去生命的普通人,是否会为他们的逝去负责?

中国当局周三(12月7日)宣布了十条防控新措施,包括不准随意对小区和街道实施临时封控,除老人和儿童机构等特殊场所外,不查检健康码等。外界普遍认为,尽管没有官方宣布,但“新十条”意味着“清零”的正式结束。

英国广播公司BBC驻华记者麦笛文(Stephen
McDonell)写道:“我刚在街头就(防疫政策的)改变采访民众。北京现在的气氛真的是轻松愉悦的。终于,中国人能看到隧道尽头的光芒了。”

I’ve just been
out in the streets interviewing people about the changes and the
mood in
#Beijing is really buoyant. Finally, people in
#China can see the light at the end of the
#ZeroCovid tunnel.

— Stephen McDonell (@StephenMcDonell)
December 7, 2022

但过去三年来,中国将资源集中在了维持“清零”上,并没有为开放后的医疗需求等作准备。有专家认为,突然的“躺平”或许导致大量病患住院和死亡病例。

美国《外交政策》杂志副主编詹姆斯·帕尔默(James
Palmer)也为中国接下来可能出现的困境感到担忧:“我想此刻我们可以说‘清零’政策结束了。下一阶段可能会出现相当糟糕的新冠病例潮(虽然不会像2020年可能出现的那么糟糕)以及一个准备不足的医疗体系。”

I think at this
point we can actually say ‘zero covid’ as a policy is dead. The
next stage is going to be riding out what will probably be a pretty
bad (though not as bad as it would have been in 2020) covid wave
with an underprepared medical system. https://t.co/4vnBmvzlDq

— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer)
December 7, 2022

而当病例数字攀升时,中国地方官员是否会如实上报也是另一点值得关注的地方。美国外交关系协会高级研究员明克胜(Carl
Minzner)问道:“准确地上报数量较多的病例,那不会给习近平造成政治麻烦吗(他在2020年就宣布战胜新冠了)?如果不上报,那不会助长许多中国人的恐惧,疫情其实比北京当局允许公布的更糟糕?”

(2/2) Accurately
report larger case numbers, and doesn’t that become a political
problem for Xi Jinping (who declared victory over covid in
2020)?

Fail to do so, and won’t that feed into widespread fear among many
in China that the pandemic is worse than Beijing is letting on?

— Carl Minzner (@CarlMinzner)
December 6, 2022

耶鲁大学法学院教授张泰苏则指出了恢复经济方面的担忧:“担忧的是(开放)来得太迟了,挽救不了经济。也许生产链已经无法挽回地离开了,房地产市场无法挽回地下沉,国内消费无法挽回地受到了伤害。”

… this is not
such a bad way to do that. The worry is that it’s come too late to
really save the economy, that supply chains are already
irreversibly being moved out, real estate markets irreversibly in
decline, and domestic consumption irreversibly damaged. Personally…
6

— Taisu Zhang (@ZhangTaisu)
December 7, 2022

另一个让观察人士好奇的是北京将如何对因为“清零”防疫措施而失去生命的人负责。

英国杜伦大学国际关系助理教授张晨晨写道:“2020年,中国政府以打压愤怒和规定哀悼方式作为回应,设立了国家哀悼日,把李文亮变成了官方认可的‘殉道者’……。在2022年,公众的不满变成了线下的抗议。到目前为止我们看到了限制措施的放松,并带来了‘清零’政策的结束。但政府不太可能承认那些因为新冠政策而失去的生命。这里的‘死亡政治学’(Necropolitics)规定谁的生命值得被悼念,哪些悼念方式可以被纳入民族主义项目,哪些不可以。”

the end of
zero-covid policy. but it’s unlikely that the state will ever
recognize the lives lost to covid policies. the necropolitics at
play here is whose lives are worth grieving for and what kind of
grieving can be co-opted by the nationalist project and what
cannot

— Chenchen Zhang (@chenchenzh)
December 7, 2022

《纽约时报》专栏作家袁莉也表示:“(‘清零’结束)是勇敢的抗议者们的一场胜利。但我们依然不知道那27名死在大巴事故中的人名字,那10名死在大火中的人的名字,以及许多许多没能得到医疗救助或自杀的人们的名字。”

re-upping this
from last week. It was a win for the courageous protesters. Period.
But we still don’t know the names of the 27 people who died in the
bus accident, the 10 who died in the fire or the many people who
died because they couldn’t get treatment or committed suicide
https://t.co/lNQv905Hsw

— Li Yuan (@LiYuan6)
December 7, 2022