「中英」钱多好办事:沙特王储如何从国际“弃儿”变座上宾

沙特国家新闻媒体发布的照片显示,穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储去年12月出席了在利雅得举行的第43届海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会首脑会议,并在期间主持了中国-海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会峰会 Bandar Al-Jaloud/Saudi Press Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

President Biden vowed during his quest for the White House to make the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, a “pariah” over the killing and dismemberment of a dissident. He threatened the prince again last fall with “consequences” for defying American wishes on oil policy.
拜登总统在参加大选时曾誓言,要让杀害并肢解一名异见人士的沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼成为“”。去年秋天,拜登再次发出威胁,如果王储在石油政策上违背美国意愿的话,会遭受“后果”。
Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator, called Prince Mohammed, the oil-rich kingdom’s de facto ruler, a “wrecking ball” who could “never be a leader on the world stage.” And Jay Monahan, the head of golf’s prestigious PGA Tour, suggested that players who joined a rival Saudi-backed league betrayed the victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks — carried out by hijackers who were mostly Saudi citizens.
在这个石油储量丰富的王国,穆罕默德王储是实际统治者,共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆曾称他为“破坏者”,“永远不是世界舞台上的领导人”。世界头号高尔夫巡回赛PGA的负责人杰伊·莫纳汉曾暗示,球员加入沙特支持的竞争对手联赛是对“9·11”恐怖袭击遇难者的背叛(制造那次恐怖袭击的劫机者大都是沙特公民)。
Now, their words ring hollow.
现在,他们这些听起来像是空话。
Mr. Biden, visiting Saudi Arabia last year, fist bumped Prince Mohammed when they met and regularly dispatches officials to see him — including his secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, this past week. Senator Graham grinned next to the prince — known by his initials M.B.S. — during a visit to Saudi Arabia in April. Also this week, Mr. Monahan jolted the world of professional golf by announcing a planned partnership between the PGA and the upstart Saudi-backed LIV Golf league, suddenly giving the kingdom tremendous global influence over the sport.
去年访问沙特阿拉伯时,拜登与穆罕默德王储见了面,两人还击拳致意。拜登经常派官员去见穆罕默德王储,包括上周的国务卿布林肯。参议员格雷厄姆今年4月访问沙特阿拉伯时,露着笑脸与人称MBS的王储合影。就在本周,莫纳汉宣布PGA与沙特支持的新贵LIV高尔夫联盟建立合作伙伴关系的计划,震惊了职业高尔夫界,并突然赋予了沙特王国对这项运动的巨大全球影响力。
“It just tells you how money talks because this guy sits on top of this oil well and all this money, so he can basically buy his way out of everything,” said Abdullah Alaoudh, the Saudi director for the Freedom Initiative, a rights group in Washington and a vocal opponent of the monarchy.
“这只是在告诉人们财大气就粗,因为这个人拥有石油和所有这些钱,所以他基本上可以用钱解决一切,”总部设在华盛顿的权利倡导组织“自由倡议”的沙特主任、沙特君主制直言不讳的反对者阿卜杜拉·阿拉乌德说。
Over and over throughout his eight-year rise to power, Prince Mohammed, 37, has defied expectations that his rule was in jeopardy while leveraging the kingdom’s wealth, its sway over oil markets and its importance in the Arab and Islamic worlds to evade repeated threats to punish him with international isolation.
在权力崛起的八年里,现年37岁的穆罕默德王储一次又一次地打破了人们对其统治受到威胁的预测,他利用沙特王国的财富、对石油市场的影响力,以及沙特在阿拉伯和伊斯兰世界的重要性,多次逃脱了使其在国际上受到孤立的惩罚威胁。
Along the way, he has not only sharpened his vision for the future of Saudi Arabia as an assertive regional power with a growing economy and increased political clout, but has taken lessons from his setbacks to refine his methods for achieving his goals, analysts and officials said.
分析人士和官员们表示,与此同时,穆罕默德王储不仅强化了经济不断增长、政治影响力越来越大的沙特作为自信的区域大国的未来,而且还从他的挫折中吸取教训,改进了实现目标的方法。
For now, at least, he appears to be riding high.
至少现在,他似乎获得了成功。

美国国务卿布林肯上周抵达利雅得。 Pool photo by Ahmed Yosri

Strong oil demand in recent years has filled the kingdom’s coffers. It bought an English soccer club, paid an eye-popping figure to bring Cristiano Ronaldo to play in its national league and is trying to recruit other international stars, too.
近年来强劲的石油需求让沙特的国库充盈。沙特收购了一家英国足球俱乐部,斥巨资引进了罗纳尔多加入沙特国家联赛,并且还在努力招募其他的国际球星
If the golf deal goes through, a close aide to Prince Mohammed would become one of the sport’s most powerful figures, giving Saudi Arabia another major platform to reshape its international image.
如果前面提到的高尔夫合作伙伴关系达成的话,穆罕默德王储的一名亲密助手将成为该运动最有影响力的人士之一,并为沙特阿拉伯提供另一个重塑国际形象的重要平台。
In recent years, heads of state from Turkey to the United States who once spurned Prince Mohammed have accepted him as the future of Saudi Arabia. And he has deepened the kingdom’s relationships with China, which helped broker a diplomatic breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Iran, longtime regional rivals.
近年来,从土耳其到美国,曾唾弃穆罕默德王储的国家元首们纷纷将他作为沙特阿拉伯的未来予以接受。他还加深了沙特与中国的关系,后者曾帮助促成了沙特与伊朗这两个长期的区域竞争对手取得外交突破
That all marks significant progress for a young prince who was widely seen as a dangerous upstart after his father became king in 2015.
这一切都标志着这名年轻王子取得的重大进步,2015年他父亲成为国王后,人们曾普遍把穆罕默德王储视为一个危险的自命不凡者。
That same year, the prince launched a military intervention in Yemen that caused vast civilian deaths and sank into a quagmire. He later shocked the diplomatic community with the kidnapping of the prime minister of Lebanon and stunned the business community by locking hundreds of rich Saudis for weeks on end in a luxury hotel as part of a purported anti-corruption drive.
就在那年,他对也门发动军事干预,导致大量平民死亡并陷入困境。之后,他绑架黎巴嫩总理,震惊了外交界。他还将数百名富有的沙特人连续数周关在一家豪华酒店里,据说那是反腐运动的一部分,震惊了商界。
His international standing took a sharp dive in 2018 after a Saudi hit squad killed and dismembered the dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul. Prince Mohammed denied any foreknowledge of the plot, but the Central Intelligence Agency concluded that he had likely ordered the operation.
他的国际地位在2018年急剧下降,因为一个沙特杀手小组在沙特驻伊斯坦布尔领事馆内杀害并肢解了异见沙特记者贾迈勒·卡舒吉。穆罕默德王储否认事先知道该阴谋,但美国中央情报局得出的结论是,他很可能下令进行了这次行动。

2018年,在伊斯坦布尔一座清真寺举行的象征性葬礼祈祷上的贾马尔·卡舒吉的照片,这名异见记者被沙特特工杀害。 Bulent Kilic/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

That was perhaps his lowest point.
那也许是他的最低点。
But in the years since, the crown prince has recovered much of his clout, helped by his country’s considerable wealth and power.
但在那之后的几年里,穆罕默德王储已在他的国家可观的财富和影响力的帮助下恢复了大部分名声。
Early on, he sidelined rivals to consolidate his control at home. Social changes he has pushed through, like allowing women to drive and expanding entertainment options in a country that used to ban movie theaters, have won him fans among the kingdom’s youth.
他曾在掌权的早期排挤对手,巩固了自己对国内的控制。他推动的社会变革,例如允许女性开车、在这个曾经禁止电影院的国家扩大人们的娱乐选择等,为他在沙特年轻人中赢得了粉丝。
He also knows that, as the king-in-waiting in a monarchy, he can play the long game. He will never have to stand for re-election and he is already dealing with his third American president, with many more likely to come and go while he remains.
他也知道,作为君主制的王储,他能做长远打算。他永远不需要竞选连任,他已与三任美国总统打过交道,将来还会经历好几任美国总统,而他将一直掌握权力。
His eventual recovery from the Khashoggi affair showed that the kingdom’s money could go a long way and that no matter how much Western governments talked about human rights, other interests ultimately took precedence.
他最终从卡舒吉事件恢复这件事表明钱多好办事,而且无论西方政府如何谈论人权,其他利益最终优先。
“The Gulf Arab states, they think it’s a joke,” Dina Esfandiary, senior adviser for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, said of human rights criticisms. “They really do grasp their worth to the Western world, as partners, as energy producers, as countries with economic might, so they say, ‘We can handle this empty threat because it is just part of the relationship.’”
“海湾阿拉伯国家都认为这是个笑话,”国际危机组织中东和北非高级顾问迪娜·埃斯凡迪亚里谈到批评人权问题时说。“他们确实知道自己作为合作伙伴、作为能源生产国、作为有经济实力的国家对西方世界的价值,所以他们说,‘我们能对付这种空洞的威胁,因为那只是关系的一部分。’”
President Trump was in office when Mr. Khashoggi was killed and staunchly defended the prince, saying among other things that Saudi arms purchases benefited the United States.
卡舒吉被杀后,时任美国总统的特朗普曾坚定地为穆罕默德王储辩护,称沙特的军火采购对美国有利。

2018年卡舒吉被杀前几个月,时任总统的特朗普在白宫会见了穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼。 Doug Mills/The New York Times

Mr. Graham, the senator from South Carolina who said after the Khashoggi killing that Prince Mohammed was not fit to lead, turned around and praised him during a visit to Saudi Arabia in April, when he thanked Saudi Arabia for buying American jets.
来自南卡罗来纳州的参议员格雷厄姆在卡舒吉被杀后曾表示,穆罕默德王储不适合领导国家。但在今年4月访问沙特阿拉伯时,格雷厄姆反而称赞了他,当时,格雷厄姆对沙特阿拉伯购买美国喷气式飞机表示感谢。
“You bought $37 billion of aircraft made in my state and my country. I think more is coming,” Mr. Graham told Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya television. “So as a United States senator, I reserve the right to change course.”
“你们购买了价值370亿美元的飞机,这些飞机是在我的州和我的国家制造的。我认为以后还有更多,”格雷厄姆对沙特阿拉伯的Al Arabiya电视台说。“因此,作为美国参议员,我保留改变看法的权利。”
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, whose government leaked details of Mr. Khashoggi’s murder to damage Prince Mohammed, also eventually set its objections aside. Last year, a Turkish court transferred the case against Mr. Khashoggi’s killers to Saudi Arabia, ending the last case that sought to ensure accountability for the crime. Not long after, the kingdom set aside $5 billion in deposits for Turkey’s central bank to help shore up its finances.
土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的政府为削弱穆罕默德王储的形象泄露了卡舒吉被杀的细节,但最终也把对此事的不满放在了一边。去年,一个土耳其法庭将针对杀害卡舒吉凶手的案件移交给了沙特阿拉伯,结束了追究犯罪责任的最后一起案件。不久后,沙特王国帮助支撑土耳其的财政,将50亿美元存进了土耳其中央银行。
The PGA did a similar about-face.
PGA也做出了类似的大转变。
For months, Mr. Monahan, the PGA commissioner, berated Saudi Arabia, even asking players who considered joining the rival circuit: “Have you ever had to apologize for being a member of the PGA Tour?”
几个月来,美国职业高尔夫球巡赛主席莫纳汉一直在批评沙特阿拉伯,甚至问那些考虑加入跟PGA存在竞争关系的巡回赛的球员:“你们可曾为参加PGA巡赛而不得不道歉吗?”
Affecting many of Prince Mohammed’s decisions in recent years is a growing sense within the kingdom that the United States has become an unreliable partner.
近年来,影响穆罕默德王储诸多决定的因素是——沙特国内越来越多的人认为,美国不再是一个可靠的伙伴。

PGA巡回赛与沙特支持的LIV高尔夫联赛达成意外协议,突显了沙特王国的金钱和影响力在克服人权问题上的力量。 Doug Mills/The New York Times

The prince has dealt with three U.S. presidents from both parties who all want to scale back American involvement in the Middle East. The risks of such a retreat for Saudi Arabia became clear in 2019, when drone and missile attacks that the United States accused Iran of orchestrating hit Saudi oil facilities, temporarily halting about half of the kingdom’s output.
穆罕默德王储已经与来自民主党和共和党的三位美国总统打过交道,这几位总统都想缩减美国在中东的参与。对沙特阿拉伯来说,美国退避的风险在2019年变得很明显,当时,沙特的石油设施遭到了无人机和导弹袭击,导致该国约一半的产量暂停,美国指责伊朗策划了袭击。
President Trump declined to respond directly, leading Prince Mohammed and his counterparts in the United Arab Emirates to conclude that the United States no longer had their backs and that they had to look out for their own security.
特朗普总统拒绝做出直接回应,这让穆罕默德王储和阿拉伯联合酋长国的领导人们得出结论,认为美国不再支持他们,他们必须留心防备自己的国家安全。
“Now, it is very engraved in their minds that, ‘We can’t count on Washington to defend us, so we have to do it ourselves,’” said Ms. Esfandiary of the International Crisis Group. “This has led to a rejigging of certain things in their foreign policy.”
 “现在,一个想法已深深地铭刻在他们心中:‘我们不能指望华盛顿来保护我们,所以我们必须自己保护自己’,”国际危机组织的埃斯凡迪亚里说。“这导致了他们对外交政策的某些方面进行调整。”
It has also made it less likely that Saudi Arabia will automatically accede to American requests.
这也降低了沙特阿拉伯不假思索地答应美国要求的可能性。
Prince Mohammed refused to join Western sanctions aimed at isolating President Vladimir V. Putin after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia has since instead stepped up imports of discounted Russian oil products.
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后,穆罕默德王储不仅拒绝加入孤立普京总统的西方制裁,后来反而加大了对价格被压低的俄罗斯石油产品的进口。
After Mr. Biden met Prince Mohammed in Saudi Arabia in July last year, the administration pushed the kingdom to keep oil production up to help bring down gas prices in the United States ahead of midterm elections in November. But in October, the kingdom agreed with the other members of the oil cartel known as OPEC Plus to cut production instead, aiming to keep prices up.
拜登去年7月在沙特阿拉伯与穆罕默德王储见面后,美国政府曾要求沙特维持石油产量,从而帮助美国在11月的中期选举前降低国内天然气的价格。但去年10月,沙特与被称为“欧佩克+”的石油输出国组织的其他成员国达成协议,为保持油价上涨减少石油产量。
That angered Mr. Biden, and White House officials accused Saudi Arabia of having reneged on an agreement. Months later, when oil demand did flag, the Saudis insisted they had been right to resist political pressure and cut production.
这激怒了拜登,白宫官员指责沙特阿拉伯违背了协议。几个月后,当石油需求确实降低时,沙特坚称他们抵制政治压力减产的做法是正确的。
The “consequences” promised by President Biden never materialized, making it clear that even the United States considered its economic ties with Saudi Arabia too vital to disrupt.
拜登威胁的“后果”从未兑现,这清楚地表明,就连美国都认为与沙特的经济关系至关重要,不能中断。
The perception that the U.S. is pulling back from the Middle East has driven Prince Mohammed to broaden Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic relationships, particularly with China, the kingdom’s most important trade partner and the largest consumer of Saudi oil.
对于美国正在退出中东事务的看法迫使穆罕默德王储扩大外交关系,尤其是与中国的关系,中国是沙特王国最重要的贸易伙伴,也是沙特石油的最大消费国。

沙特王宫发布的照片显示,去年7月,穆罕默德王储在沙特阿拉伯吉达与拜登总统击拳致意。 Bandar Al-Jaloud/Saudi Royal Palace, via Associated Press

In recent years, the crown prince has cultivated China’s president, Xi Jinping, hosting him at a Chinese-Arab summit in Riyadh in December 2022. During that meeting, the two leaders discussed China’s serving as a mediator to diminish conflict with the Iranians.
近年来,王储已在与中国国家主席习近平建立关系,在 2022年12月利雅得举行的中阿峰会上招待了后者。在那次会议上,这两位领导人讨论了中国在减少沙特与伊朗冲突方面的斡旋者作用。
A few months later, the relationship yielded a surprising diplomatic breakthrough, when Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they would restore normal diplomatic relations.
几个月后,沙特和伊朗的关系取得了令人惊讶的外交突破,两国宣布恢复正常外交关系
It was a double win for Prince Mohammed, who in one agreement diminished the likelihood of conflict with his main regional foe while giving a world power other than the United States a stake in the outcome.
这对穆罕默德王储来说可谓一石二鸟。通过达成一项协议,他既减少了与自己的主要区域对手发生冲突的可能性,又让美国之外的世界大国在协议的达成中获得重大利益。
Saudi officials have said that they would prefer to keep the United States as their primary ally but that the lack of American commitment means they need to diversify. And the United States was in no position to broker an agreement between the Saudis and the Iranians because of its own tense relationship with Tehran.
沙特官员已表示,他们更愿意将美国作为主要盟友,但美国承诺的缺失意味着他们需要扩大盟友的范围。而且由于美国自己与德黑兰关系紧张,美国无法促成沙特与伊朗恢复外交关系。

沙特王宫发布的照片显示,穆罕默德王储去年12月在利雅得欢迎到访的中国最高领导人习近平。 Bandar Al-Jaloud/Saudi Royal Court, via Reuters

Ben Hubbard是时报伊斯坦布尔分社社长。他在阿拉伯世界度过了十几年,包括叙利亚、伊拉克、黎巴嫩、沙特阿拉伯、埃及和也门等国家。他是《MBS: The Rise to Power of Mohammed bin Salman》一书的作者。点击此处了解更多。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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